Dynamic Latent Class Model Averaging for Online Prediction

We consider the problem of online prediction when it is uncertain what the best prediction model to use is. We develop a method called dynamic latent class model averaging, which combines a state‐space model for the parameters of each of the candidate models of the system with a Markov chain model for the best model. We propose a polychotomous regression model for the transition weights to assume that the probability of a change in time depends on the past through the values of the most recent time periods and spatial correlation among the regions. The evolution of the parameters in each submodel is defined by exponential forgetting. This structure allows the ‘correct’ model to vary over both time and regions. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed model naturally incorporates clustering and prediction analysis in a single unified framework. We develop an efficient Gibbs algorithm for computation, and we demonstrate the value of our framework on simulated experiments and on a real‐world problem: forecasting IBM's corporate revenue. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PAR3–PAR6–atypical PKC polarity complex proteins in neuronal polarization

Polarity is a fundamental feature of cells. Protein complexes, including the PAR3–PAR6–aPKC complex, have conserved roles in establishing polarity across a number of eukaryotic cell types. In neurons, polarity is evident as distinct axonal versus dendritic domains. The PAR3, PAR6, and aPKC proteins also play important roles in neuronal polarization. During this process, either aPKC kinase activity, the assembly of the PAR3–PAR6–aPKC complex or the localization of these proteins is regulated downstream of a number of signaling pathways. In turn, the PAR3, PAR6, and aPKC proteins control various effector molecules to establish neuronal polarity. Herein, we discuss the many signaling mechanisms and effector functions that have been linked to PAR3, PAR6, and aPKC during the establishment of neuronal polarity.     

Friction-stir-welded overaged 7020-T6 alloy joint: an investigation on the effect of rotational speed on the microstructure and mechanical properties

Commercial A7020-T6 plates in the overaged state were subjected to friction stir welding with four different tool rotational speeds of 500, 710, 1000, and 1400 r/min and a single traverse feed rate of 40 mm/min. The resultant changes in the welding heat input, microstructure, and the mechanical properties of the joints were investigated. The changes were related to the processes of growth, dissolution, and re-formation of precipitates. The precipitate evolution was examined by differential scanning calorimetry, and the microstructural analysis was conducted using optical, scanning, and transmission electron microscopes. The results showed that the grain size in the stirred zone(SZ) decreased substantially compared with the base metal, but increased with tool rotational speed because of the rise in temperature. We found that the width of the heat-affected zone increased with tool rotational speed. The hardness and the tensile strength in the SZ increased with increasing heat input compared with the base metal in the overaged condition. This recovery in mechanical properties of the joints can be attributed to the dissolution and re-formation of precipitates in the SZ and the thermomechanically affected zone. This process is referred to as an "auto-aging treatment."     

Biogenic amino acid methionine-based corrosion inhibitors of mild steel in acidic media

N,N-Diallyl methionine ethyl ester hydrochloride 5 underwent alternating copolymerization with SO_2 via the Butler cyclopolymerization protocol in dimethyl sulfoxide(DMSO) to give water-soluble cycloterpolymer 6 with a ～1:1 molar ratio of sulfide and sulfoxide groups as a result of oxygen transfer from DMSO. Half of the sulfide groups in 6, upon oxidation with H_2O_2, afforded polymer sulfoxide 7 and polymer sulfone 8. The solution properties of these polymers were determined via a viscometric technique. The thermal stability of these polymers was determined by thermogravimetric analysis. The inhibition efficiency obtained from gravimetric mass loss, potentiodynamic polarization, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy techniques agreed well with each other. The corrosion efficiencies increase with increasing concentration of the polymers. At a polymer concentration of 175 mM, the maximum inhibition efficiency of copolymer compounds 6–8 was determined to be 92%, 97%, and 95%, respectively. The synthesized polymer compounds acted as mixed-type inhibitors. Polymer compound 7 adsorbed onto the metal surface via chemisorption and physisorption and obeyed Langmuir, Temkin, and Freundlich adsorption isotherms. Analyses by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy–energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy indicated that the adsorbed polymers formed a thin film on the metal surface and prevented further corrosive attack.     

两步进气下吸式固定床气化系统的设计、调试和运行

开发了一套原料处理量为25 kg/h的两步进气下吸式固定床气化系统,并对两步进气直筒形（Stratified）下吸式固定床气化炉的炉型、结构和主体尺寸以及焦油检测系统进行了设计,对鼓风机、引风机、出炭螺旋等关键部件的参数进行了计算。气化炉整体高度为2683 mm,气化炉有效内径为350 mm,所需引风量和鼓风量都是60 m3/h。采用木片为原料,通过冷态实验和热态实验对气化系统进行验证,验证了该气化系统完全满足设计和实验需要。通过对比两步进气和一步进气实验结果,发现两步进气法可有效提升炉体温度,显著提高可燃气中可燃气体组分含量和热值,并有效降低可燃气中焦油含量。     

关于有理混合吸引子的Ciric型非唯一不动点定理

本文我们应用有理混合吸引子条件去证明具非唯一不动点的映射Ciric型的若干不动点定理.结果推广并改进已知的一些结果.     

Combinational electroporation and transplantation approach to studying gene functions in avian embryos

Gene transfection is an indispensable approach for studying gene function since it provides important information on gain- and/or loss-of-function. Chick embryos are also extensively employed for studying bio- logical function since they are easily accessible and can be maintained alive after manipulation. The combination of both techniques presents a powerful approach to under- standing how genes regulate embryo development. Fur- thermore, combining these approaches with tissue transplant techniques make even more attractive for elu- cidate gene function. Electroporation, employing parallelly fashioned electrodes, has been widely used in chick embryos. However, experimenters have been frustrated by unsuccessfully transfection in some embryonic tissue of interest because the electrodes were improperly positioned.We presently demonstrated the different patterns of orga- nizing and positioning the electrodes, in combination with tissue transplantation, to efficiently and specifically trans- fect the chick embryonic head, trunk neural tube, heart tube, somites and neural crest cells with the GFP reporter gene.